Sizing up AFC wild card picture Remaining schedule for each team in mix predictions on who makes playoffs
Sizing up AFC wild card picture Remaining schedule for each team in mix predictions on who makes playoffs
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Just four weeks remain in the 2023 regular season and the playoff race is as tightly contested as it's been in Marquel Lee Jersey recent memory. Just one team has officially secured a playoff spot and only two teams have been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention as we head into Week 15. Specifically in the AFC, no team is locked into the postseason and all but one club is technically still alive.As we barrel down the stretch run, we're going to look at the AFC and, more precisely, the wild card race that is neck and neck as we sit here with a month left. We have six teams currently 7-6 on the season, so there is going to be plenty of jockeying for position to try and be one of the three teams that land those wild card spots.Below, we'll lay out the current wild card standings heading into Week 15, roll out every team's remaining schedule for each club, and finally give our predictions for how this race will ultimately shake out.Given how close all these teams are in the standings, it's a good time to highlight all the tiebreaker scenarios that could become a key factor as we determine who the wild card teams are. If two wild card teams are tied for a playoff spot and are division rivals, the tiebreaker will be head-to-head record. If the two teams split the season series, the best win percentage within the division will be the tiebreaker.If there are two clubs from different positions that are tied at the end of the year, here are the following tiebreaking scenarios:Head to head, if applicable.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.Strength of victory in all games.Strength of schedule in all games.Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.Best net points in conference games.Best net points in all games.Best net touchdowns in all games.Coin to s.If there are three or more teams tied at the end of the year, the first tiebreaker would be to apply the division tiebreaker. All but the highest-ranked clubs in each division would remain. Then, , "the original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are nece sary to identify the two wild card participants." After that, they'd follow with head-to-head tiebreakers, conference record, and record between common opponents.CURRENT SEEDTEAMRecordCONFSOVSOS5 -- x8-56-3.548.4626 -- x7-65-4.516.5777 -- x7-65-4.407.48187-64-4.484.48197-64-5.505.423107-63-6.516.577117-64-5.462.519Cleveland BrownsRemaining schedule: vs. , at Texans, vs. , at BengalsThe Browns have several things in their favor heading down the stretch. First and foremost, they are a game up on the rest of the competition, giving them a tremendous leg up in securing one of these final three spots. The team's 6-3 conference record is also the best of the contending teams in this race. They also have the second-easiest schedule of the teams in the AFC that are in wild card contention, based off of their upcoming opponents' combined win percentage. has been named the starter for the rest of the season and he has been able to keep the ship afloat while the Cleveland defense continues to be among the top in the league. simulation: 81.5% chance to make playoffsPittsburgh SteelersRemaining schedule: at Colts, vs. Bengals, at , at The Steelers are a team that could be in some trouble down the stretch. They currently have a playoff spot thanks, in part, to their 5-4 conference record. However, they face three AFC teams over the next month including both Indianapolis and Cincinnati, who could look to take a pivotal head-to-head tiebreaker over the next two weeks. is still sidelined due to an ankle injury, so the team will be leaning on to keep them afloat.Sportsline simulation:28.2% chance to make playoffs Indianapolis ColtsRemaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at , vs. , vs. TexansThe Colts have been a plucky team all season, despite losing first-round quarterback . They currently own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Texans after beating them back in Week 2, but will wrap up the year with a game against their AFC South rival that could very well result in one team making the postseason and the other going home. Indy has tiebreakers over the Bills, Bengals, and Broncos due to their 5-4 conference record. The Colts are also just a game behind the for first place in the AFC South but were swept by Jacksonville throughout the season, so they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker within the division.Sportsline simulation:39.3% chance to make playoffsHouston TexansRemaining schedule: at , vs. Browns, vs. Titans, at ColtsThe good news for Houston is that each of its final four games are against AFC opponents, which could help bolster the club's 4-4 conference record -- a key tiebreaker. Three of the four games also come within the division. The bad news is that rookie phenom is currently in concu sion protocol, which puts his status for Week 15 in doubt. If he is unable to play that, of course, will drastically alter the Texans chances of reaching the postseason. Similar to Indy, the Darron Lee Jersey Texans are also just a game behind the Jaguars in the division. They split the season series, so the next tiebreaker would be determined by division record. At the moment the Jaguars (4-1) beat the Texans (1-2) in that category, but things would get interesting if they were to sweep the final stretch while the Jaguars fell to the Titans in Week 18, knotting them up in that area as well.Sportsline simulation:43.9% chance to make playoffsDenver BroncosRemaining schedule: at , vs. , vs. , at RaidersOf the teams that we've covered in this race, the Broncos have the easiest remaining strength of schedule. Overall, it's the seventh-easiest remaining schedule in the league, which bodes well for their chances of continuing what has been a late-season surge where they've won six of their last seven. This next game against the Lions in Detroit is the most difficult of the remaining games, and then Denver faces all AFC opponents which could help improve its 4-5 conference record. Currently, the Broncos own head-to-head tiebreakers over the Bills and Browns, while losing the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Texans.Sportsline simulation:40.9% chance to make playoffs Cincinnati BengalsRemaining schedule: vs. , at Steelers, at , vs. BrownsCincinnati has stayed afloat despite losing for the year. has been solid coming in under dure s and has won two of his three starts so far. That said, they have a rather daunting road ahead as each opponent is vying for a playoff spot. The Bengals are just 3-6 in the conference and 0-4 within the division, so a lot of dominos will need to fall in their favor for them to make an improbable run into the playoffs.Sportsline simulation:36.2% chance to make playoffsBuffalo BillsRemaining schedule: vs. , at Chargers, vs. Patriots, at You can make the case that the Bills are the most talented team in this group and almost certainly have the best quarterback. Despite that, they most likely need to win out and hope the teams in front of them falter down the stretch. The Bills lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to Cincinnati and Denver and have a conference record of 4-5. One of their most difficult games left on the schedule is this week against Dallas, but that game is at home at Highmark Stadium. After that, they have two games against the Chargers and Patriots where they'll be heavily favored, bolstering the club's conference record. It's worth pointing out that while the Bills are at the bottom of these standings in the wild card race, they are just two games back of the Dolphins, who own the third-toughest remaining schedule in the league. There's a po sibility that the AFC East title could be determined in Week 18 at Hard Rock Stadium when Buffalo and Miami duke it out in the regular-season finale.Sportsline simulation:42.1% chance to make playoffsNo. 5 -- BrownsNo. 6 -- BroncosNo. 7 -- ColtsThe Browns have too much going for them at the moment to not have them as one of the final three wild card teams. They have a game up on the rest of the field, have a stellar conference record, and are playing well with Flacco under center. They'll be in a position to secure key head-to-head tiebreakers down the stretch and boast a defense that will routinely give themselves a chance to win over the next month. Meanwhile, the Broncos have arguably the easiest path to securing one of the final three spots, which is sweeping the final month to finish the year at 11-6. The Lions have shown that they can be beat and if they were to mount that upset, they'd be facing backup quarterbacks in each of their final three games. The final spot is likely going to come down the wire between the Texans and Colts and will be determined by the health Fred Biletnikoff Jersey of Stroud. If he were fully healthy, Houston probably gets the edge, but with the young quarterback currently in concu sion protocol, that exposes the Texans to a potential lo s this weekend in Tenne see. The Colts play three of their final four games at home (all home games against AFC opponents), which includes a Week 18 matchup against the Texans, who they already beat on the road back in Week 2.
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